Well-temperate phage: optimal bet-hedging against local environmental collapses

Upon infection of their bacterial hosts temperate phages must chose between lysogenic and lytic developmental strategies. Here we apply the game-theoretic bet-hedging strategy introduced by Kelly to derive the optimal lysogenic fraction of the total population of phages as a function of frequency and intensity of environmental downturns affecting the lytic subpopulation. "Well-temperate" phage from our title is characterized by the best long-term population growth rate. We show that it is realized when the lysogenization frequency is approximately equal to the probability of lytic population collapse. We further predict the existence of sharp boundaries in system's environmental, ecological, and biophysical parameters separating the regions where this temperate strategy is optimal from those dominated by purely virulent or} dormant (purely lysogenic) strategies. We show that the virulent strategy works best for phages with large diversity of hosts, and access to multiple independent environments reachable by diffusion. Conversely, progressively more temperate or even dormant strategies are favored in the environments, that are subject to frequent and severe temporal downturns.Comment: 26 pages, 3 figure

Promise and Pitfalls of Extending Google's PageRank Algorithm to Citation Networks

We review our recent work on applying the Google PageRank algorithm to find scientific "gems" among all Physical Review publications, and its extension to CiteRank, to find currently popular research directions. These metrics provide a meaningful extension to traditionally-used importance measures, such as the number of citations and journal impact factor. We also point out some pitfalls of over-relying on quantitative metrics to evaluate scientific quality.Comment: 3 pages, 1 figure, invited comment for the Journal of Neuroscience. The arxiv version is microscopically different from the published versio

Severe population collapses and species extinctions in multi-host epidemic dynamics

Most infectious diseases including more than half of known human pathogens are not restricted to just one host, yet much of the mathematical modeling of infections has been limited to a single species. We investigate consequences of a single epidemic propagating in multiple species and compare and contrast it with the endemic steady state of the disease. We use the two-species Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to calculate the severity of post-epidemic collapses in populations of two host species as a function of their initial population sizes, the times individuals remain infectious, and the matrix of infection rates. We derive the criteria for a very large, extinction-level, population collapse in one or both of the species. The main conclusion of our study is that a single epidemic could drive a species with high mortality rate to local or even global extinction provided that it is co-infected with an abundant species. Such collapse-driven extinctions depend on factors different than those in the endemic steady state of the disease

Diversity waves in collapse-driven population dynamics

Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe collapses of the entire population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is cyclic "diversity waves" triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances are characterized by a bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species, while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.Comment: 15 pages (including SI), 6 figures + 7 supplementary figure

Propagation of fluctuations in interaction networks governed by the law of mass action

Using an example of physical interactions between proteins, we study how perturbations propagate in interconnected networks whose equilibrium state is governed by the law of mass action. We introduce a comprehensive matrix formalism which predicts the response of this equilibrium to small changes in total concentrations of individual molecules, and explain it using a heuristic analogy to a current flow in a network of resistors. Our main conclusion is that on average changes in free concentrations exponentially decay with the distance from the source of perturbation. We then study how this decay is influenced by such factors as the topology of a network, binding strength, and correlations between concentrations of neighboring nodes. An exact analytic expression for the decay constant is obtained for the case of uniform interactions on the Bethe lattice. Our general findings are illustrated using a real biological network of protein-protein interactions in baker's yeast with experimentally determined protein concentrations.Comment: 4 pages; 2 figure

Does the price multiplier effect also hold for stocks?

The price multiplier effect provides precious insight into the behavior of investors during episodes of speculative trading. It tells us that the higher the price of an asset is (within a set of similar assets) the more its price is likely to increase during the upgoing phase of a speculative price peak. In short, instead of being risk averse, as is often assumed, investors rather seem to be ``risk prone''. While this effect is known to hold for several sorts of assets, it has not yet been possible to test it for stocks because the price of one share has no intrinsic significance which means that one cannot say that a stock $A$ is more expensive than a stock $B$ on the basis of its price. In this paper we show that the price-dividend ratio gives a good basis for assessing the price of stocks in an intrinsic way. When this alternative measure is used instead, it turns out that the price multiplier effect also holds for stocks, at least if one concentrates on samples of companies which are sufficiently homogeneous.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, 1 table To appear in the "International Journal of Modern Physics C